The base case is not aggressive. 8% nominal grocery growth. 10% market share for Blinkit at year 20. 3% net margin — a margin Blinkit has already proven at the unit level. 11% CAGR for food service, less than the last decade. Each lever is grounded; collectively they imply a half-trillion-dollar business from $30Bn today.
The lens is not 'is this a stretch?' but 'where is this not the obvious answer?' Drag the assumptions. The implied market cap is durable to wide ranges of error — Blinkit at 7% share, food service at 9% CAGR, both at 2.5% margins — still gets you to $300–350Bn. The bear case is still the Amazon moment.
The investor who held through the volatility of the next five years will look extraordinarily wise in twenty. The investor who waited for certainty will have missed the compounding entirely.